Distribuição espaço-temporal e demográfica dos casos notificados de tuberculose em Maputo – MZ de 2011 a 2016

Abstract

Tuberculosis (TB) is an endemic disease in many regions, being one of the ten leading causes of death in the world. The African continent has the highest TB incidence, prevalence and mortality coefficients, and faces a growing problem of multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB), which is very expensive to treat. Mozambique is part of this statistic and its capital, Maputo, is one of the cities with high rates of disease that is strongly associated with the HIV epidemic. The objective of this study was to evaluate the patterns of spatio-temporal distribution of reported cases of TB in the municipality of Maputo between 2011 and 2016. For this, the annual average incidence rate and the number of TB notification cases were analyzed. The Poisson linear regression model was applied in the quarterly cases of TB. The sinusoidal function, using terms composed of pairs of sines and cosines, was used to decompose the time series into seasonal components and predict the trend of reporting TB cases. It was observed that the mean annual TB incidence rate in Maputo was 527.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants, and that the clinical diagnosis was more evident among pulmonary cases. It was found that the notification of TB varied both by districts and by season. The highest incidence rate was found in the Kamphumo district (909.8 cases per 100,000 inhabitants), and reporting cases showed a tendency to focus on the first quarter of the year (January to March). The notification of cases of TB by age group showed that, in the group older than 15 years of age, there is a tendency to decrease. No association was found between mean atmospheric temperature and mean incidence rates of TB in the analysis period. It is concluded that TB is a public health problem in Maputo. This work contributes to the knowledge of the seasonal and spatio-temporal distribution of Tuberculosis, which is essential for the improvement of health policies aimed at the control of this disease