Impacto da Blindagem Urbana no Risco Radiológico após um Evento Nuclear Hipotético

Abstract

Nuclear events pose a significant threat to society, and the possibility of using smaller but more powerful tactical nuclear weapons has raised concerns. Although no known records of their use exist, their potential for destruction and damage cannot be underestimated. Studies have been conducted involving hypothetical scenarios simulated computationally. One study simulates hypothetical scenarios of activating tactical nuclear devices in urban environments. The study aimed to estimate the risks and threats arising from human environmental exposure to gamma radiation due to the activation of a tactical nuclear device in an inhabited urban area. The study considered the potential mitigating effect of urban structures on radiation dose levels that may trigger deterministic effects on humans. The study used basic research with the hypothetical deductive method, created from analytical computational simulation, and generated radiation dose profiles estimated according to the simulation. The study's primary objective was to establish the isodose limit for the appearance of deterministic effects in a scenario involving a nuclear tactical device with a power of 10 kT (kilotons). The concept of Margin of Safety (MoS) was applied to translate the data into useful information for decision-makers. The MoS concept allows the organization of urban structures based on their ability to reduce radiation exposure (reduction factors), which is crucial to ensuring safety. The study estimated the ability of various structures to mitigate exposure and the consequent increase in levels of protection. In the case of a real application, the proposed methodology will facilitate the classification of structures distributed throughout the affected urban area. This will support decision-making, especially regarding the prioritization of service areas. The study showed that it is useful to discriminate urban structures according to criteria conditioned on radiation doses related to deterministic effects. Incorporating scientific argumentation in advice and support for decision-making increases security levels, which can result in optimized resource allocation and more consistent crisis management.