Dengue na América do Sul: o impacto das médias das temperaturas máximas nas taxas de infecção

Abstract

Dengue is one of the most relevant urban arboviruses in the Americas and represents a major global public health challenge. In recent years, the number of dengue cases has increased significantly in South America, with an alarming 157% rise in 2024 compared to 2023 and a 225% increase compared to the average of the last five years. Brazil alone accounted for more than 85% of the reported cases. This study aims to analyze the correlation between the rise in annual average maximum temperatures and the increase in dengue infections in South American countries with the highest disease incidence. The methodology involved reviewing 73 scientific articles and official data on dengue cases and average maximum temperatures from 2003 to 2024. Statistical analyses were conducted, including Pearson correlation, with a significance level set at p < 0.05. The results highlight the influence of climate variations on the dengue transmission cycle, favoring the proliferation of the Aedes aegypti vector under conditions of high temperature, humidity, and rainfall. Among the countries with the highest incidence, Brazil, Colombia, and Argentina stood out. In 2024, Brazil recorded 9,691,516 cases, with an annual average temperature of 28.6°C, showing a negligible historical correlation between temperature and cases (r = 0.12). On the other hand, Colombia exhibited the highest correlation (r = 0.74), followed by Argentina, with a moderate correlation (r = 0.56). Other countries, such as Ecuador and Peru, also showed variable correlations, indicating that factors beyond temperature influence the spread of the disease. The study concludes that while rising temperatures contribute to the proliferation of the mosquito vector, the impacts of climate change on dengue incidence remain poorly understood. This underscores the need for further research to support effective strategies for disease control and prevention.