Modelagem de séries temporais para avaliar serviços de saúde pré e pós-pandemia de COVID-19 no município de Presidente Prudente – SP

Abstract

Primary health care plays a crucial role in promoting health and preventing diseases, especially in contexts like Brazil, with its large socioeconomic disparities. The COVID-19 pandemic had a significant impact on primary health services, resulting in a decrease in the demand for preventive exams and participation in health campaigns. The main objective of this research was to evaluate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the number of services provided by primary health care in the city of Presidente Prudente – SP. Using methods such as Interrupted Time Series (ITS) and Change Point Analysis, the study aims to understand how public health interventions and isolation measures affected access to and use of health services in the region during and after the pandemic. Data from the Municipal Health Department of Presidente Prudente, covering the years 2017 to 2022, were used. The total number of services and procedures was standardized into annual rates per 10,000 inhabitants. To evaluate seasonality, monthly time series from 2017 to 2022 were analyzed, considering pre-, during, and post-pandemic periods. An analysis of variance stability was conducted, as well as parameter specification using ARIMA and SARIMA models, residual analysis, graphical evaluation of the segmented model, and performance estimates. The results reveal significant variations in primary care services and procedures in Presidente Prudente between 2017 and 2021. Before the COVID-19 pandemic, there was a general increase in annual service and procedure rates, followed by a notable reduction in 2020, particularly in procedures such as mammograms and specific preventive exams. The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted primary care in Presidente Prudente – SP, with a reduction in health services and procedures in 2020 due to social distancing measures. It is essential to learn from these challenges to strengthen the response to future crises by investing in technology, infrastructure, and preventive campaigns, ensuring accessibility and quality of primary health care services.